Welcome back to The Gulf Coast Report. Every Wednesday, I share what's actually happening in our market, the best things to do this weekend, and the local spots worth your time. No fluff, no filler. Just useful stuff for people who live here, or want to.
Let's get into it.
The Market Minute
Real Estate
The June numbers are in, and they confirm what I've been hearing from buyers and sellers all summer. Closed sales surged across Sarasota and Manatee counties, inventory tightened, and prices kept climbing. This is not a market that's cooling off.
Sarasota County's single-family median hit $492,450 (up 8.2% year over year). Manatee County came in at $490,000 (up 11.4%). Condos tell a different story prices dipped in Sarasota County to $343,750, down 7.5%. The gap between houses and condos continues to widen.
Here's the number that matters most: single-family inventory dropped to 4.1 months of supply in both counties. That's below the 5-month balanced-market threshold. A year ago, Sarasota had 6.3 months of supply. The leverage buyers had earlier this year is fading fast.
Closed sales tell the story. Manatee County single-family transactions jumped 26.2% to 890 sales. Sarasota condo and townhome sales climbed 25.5%. Buyers are not waiting for interest rates to drop. They are buying now. Mortgage rates are hovering around 6.57% to 6.75% for a 30-year fixed nationally, according to Freddie Mac, and Florida rates are in a similar range. A 15-year fixed is roughly 5.97%.
What this means for you
- For buyers: Inventory is shrinking, not growing. If you find a home that works for your lifestyle and budget, making a decision sooner rather than later could save you from paying more in a few months. The buyers who acted in the first half of 2026 are already ahead.
- For sellers: The market is tilting back in your favor. Four months of supply means well-priced homes are still moving. But pricing matters more than ever. Overpricing in a market with this much activity is the fastest way to sit on the market. Price it right from day one.
Featured Spotlight
Lakewood Ranch: America's Best-Selling Master-Planned Community
If you've been following Gulf Coast real estate for any length of time, you already know the name. Lakewood Ranch has been the best-selling master-planned community in the United States for several years running, and it's not hard to see why.
What makes it different: Lakewood Ranch isn't one neighborhood. It's a collection of distinct villages and neighborhoods, each with its own character, price range, and lifestyle. You can find a townhome in the mid-$400,000s or a custom estate north of $2 million. You get A-rated schools, miles of walking and biking trails, and a town center at Waterside Place that actually feels like a downtown.
The one thing most people don't know: Lakewood Ranch is not just for families. It has active adult neighborhoods, luxury enclaves, and rental-friendly sections. The demographic diversity is one of the reasons it works so well. Whether you're a young professional, a growing family, or a retiree looking for an active lifestyle, there's a village that fits.
Who it's best for: Buyers who want a master-planned lifestyle with top-rated schools, resort amenities, and long-term resale value. It's also ideal for out-of-state buyers who want the safety of a well-established community with predictable growth.
Thinking about Lakewood Ranch? I know the villages, the schools, and the price points. Let's talk about which neighborhood fits your goals.
Explore Lakewood RanchThis Week on the Gulf Coast
Florida State Dancesport Championships
The Ritz-Carlton Sarasota | July 29 - August 2
One of the premier ballroom dance competitions in the country, bringing dancers from all over the United States and the world to Sarasota. Whether you're a competitive dancer or just want to watch world-class performances, this is a spectacle worth seeing. The Ritz-Carlton makes an elegant backdrop. Tickets are available at the door throughout the weekend.
Sarasota Farmers Market
Lemon Avenue & Main Street, Sarasota | Saturday, August 1 | 7 AM - 1 PM
Sarasota's oldest farmers market, established in 1979, is still going strong. Fresh produce, local honey, artisan bread, and a rotating cast of local vendors. It runs year-round, and summer is actually one of the best times to go because the crowds are smaller and the produce is peak season. Grab a coffee, walk Lemon Avenue, and stock up on ingredients for the weekend.
Summer Circus Spectacular at The Ringling
The Ringling Museum, Sarasota | Through August 1
This is your last weekend to catch it. The Summer Circus Spectacular is a Sarasota tradition that brings together world-class circus performers in an intimate, family-friendly setting. It runs about 90 minutes, which is perfect for kids. If you haven't been yet, this is the final weekend to see it before the season wraps up. The Ringling grounds themselves are worth the trip.
Farmers' Market at Lakewood Ranch
Waterside Place, Lakewood Ranch | Sunday, August 2
Lakewood Ranch's weekly market at Waterside Place is a Sunday tradition that keeps growing. Local produce, prepared foods, artisan goods, and live music in a setting that feels like a small-town main street. Grab brunch at one of the Waterside restaurants, browse the market, and enjoy the low-key Sunday energy. It's the kind of thing that makes Lakewood Ranch feel like a real community, not just a development.
FIFA World Cup 2026 Watch Parties at The Bay
The Bay Park, Sarasota | Ongoing through summer
The Bay Park is hosting watch parties throughout the summer for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Bring a blanket or chair, grab food from a nearby downtown restaurant, and watch the games on a big screen overlooking the water. It's free, family-friendly, and the energy has been fantastic. Check the schedule to see which matches are playing this weekend.
Local Pick of the Week
The Spot
Tide Tables Restaurant & Marina
12507 Cortez Rd W, Cortez, FL
Tide Tables is the kind of restaurant that makes you feel like you've discovered something. Tucked away in the historic Cortez fishing village, one of the last working commercial fishing villages on Florida's Gulf Coast, this waterfront spot was just named to USA TODAY's 2026 Restaurants of the Year list. One of only 39 restaurants nationwide and just two in Florida.
What to order: The Grouper Bites. Lightly breaded, fried in their own seasoned breading, and served with homemade tartar or remoulade sauce. If there's a "Thai Chili Grouper Bites" special on the board, order that instead. The fish comes from boats that dock right next to the restaurant. It doesn't get fresher.
The insider tip: Most seating is outdoors, overlooking the Intracoastal Waterway and Anna Maria Island. You can arrive by boat (Marker 48 on the ICW) or by car. It's casual, pet-friendly, and fills up fast. Go early, grab a seat on the dock, and watch the pelicans while you wait for your food.
Why Roger loves it: It's Old Florida at its best. No pretense, no gimmicks. Just real seafood, cold beer, and a waterfront view that reminds you why you live here. The sign out front says "Where Locals Eat." It's not wrong.
The Number
26.2%
year-over-year increase in Manatee County single-family closed sales
That's 890 closed sales in June alone. A year ago, buyers were waiting for rates to drop and inventory to grow. The buyers who waited are now competing with 26% more transaction activity. The market is moving, and it moved while a lot of people were waiting for a signal. The signal was already there.
Watch This
If you're thinking about moving to the Gulf Coast, start here. Roger's YouTube channel has video tours of communities like Lakewood Ranch, Heritage Harbour, and waterfront properties you can't see from a listing photo. New videos every week.
Subscribe to the channelQuick Hits
Inventory is tightening across the board. Sarasota County single-family supply dropped from 6.3 months to 4.1 months year over year. Condo supply fell to 6.3 months from 8.3. The days of abundant choice are giving way to a more competitive market.
Florida's population keeps growing. The state added another 300,000+ residents last year, and Sarasota-Bradenton remains one of the top destinations. More people means more demand for housing, more restaurants, and more things to do. It's a good problem to have.
Summer heat tip for home buyers. Schedule showings before 10 AM or after 4 PM. Midday sun makes homes feel hotter and emptier. Morning light shows you how the space actually functions. And for sellers, those early or late showings are often the ones that lead to offers.
Tide Tables made national news. USA TODAY named it one of the 39 best restaurants in America for 2026. If you haven't been yet, this is the nudge you needed. Go during the week to avoid the wait.
That's Issue #2. Hope you found something useful in here. If you did, forward it to a friend. If you've got feedback or a question about the market, hit reply. I actually read them.
941-402-0083 • roger@rarpropertygroup.com
RAR Property Group | eXp Realty
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